Isang araw bago ang Ash Wednesday, nag-post si Lingayen-Dagupan Archbishop Soc Villegas ng video na lantarang bumabatikos kay Presidente Rodrigo Duterte.

Sa isang bahagi ng video, tinanong ni Villegas, "Are you going to deny your faith, by your vote?” (Tatalikuran mo ba ang iyong pananampalataya sa pamamagitan ng iyong boto?)

Palaban. Walang takot. Panahon pa ni Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin nang huli nating namalas ang ganito katapang na tindig mula sa simbahan.

Naging susi si Sin sa pagpapatalsik sa diktador na si Ferdinand Marcos matapos siyang manawagan noong February 25, 1986 na "pumunta ang mga Pilipino sa EDSA." Nang pumanaw si Sin noong 2005, naging laganap ang pananaw na “wala na si Cardinal Sin. Wala nang magsasalita."

Pero hindi tayo binigo ng mga tagapagmana ng kanyang liderato. Hindi rin nila binigo ang yumaong si Sin.  

Alam ng ilang alagad ng simbahan na panahon na upang kumibo. Panahon ngayon ng patayan ng libo-libong mga adik sa lansangan, pagkamanhid, pagbabaligtad sa kasaysayan, pambabastos sa mga relihiyon at Diyos, pambubusal sa media, at pagbaluktot ng mga katangiang pinahahalagahan natin bilang sambayanan.

Sa ganitong mga yugto, naging tinig sa karimlan ang simbahan.

Minsan nang sinabi ni Duterte sa mga obispo: "I want to kick your ass." Tila ang tugon sa kanya: "The kick-ass bishops are pushing back."

Ito'y sa kabila ng walang-patlang na mga banta sa buhay nina Villegas at ni Caloocan Bishop Pablo Virgilio David– na sinimulan mismo ng Pangulo nang udyukin n'ya ang mga taong "patayin ang mga 'useless' na obispo."

Dati nang sinabi ng Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines na habang ayaw nilang makialam sa pamamalakad ng estado, "hindi rin nila balak na iwan ang sagradong mandato nila bilang tagapastol."

Sa isang panayam ng Rappler kay Brother Armin Luistro, isang La Sallian, at theology professor Fr Albert Alejo, isang Heswita, sinabi nilang sa simula, nagpakulong ang simbihan sa Pilipinas sa "messaging" ni Duterte na "makasalanan at kurap" ang mga pare. Pero mukhang nakahulagpos na ang simbahan sa bullying ni Duterte.

May binabangga rin sina Villegas at David mismo sa CBCP sa kanilang lantarang pagtuligsa sa gobyerno. Hindi "monolithic" ang organisasyon ng mga obispo – kahit sa hanay nito ay may mga maka-Duterte. Meron ding hindi sang-ayon sa pagsawsaw ng simbahan sa pulitika.  

Batid nina Villegas, David, Brother Armin, at Pareng Bert na hindi lamang ito atake sa ating pampulitikang institusyon – atake rin ito sa ating dignidad, at espiritwal na buhay.

Habang nagbibingi-bingihan tayo sa gobyernong bankarote sa moralidad, pumapatay, at dumudurog sa mga kritiko kapalit ng "pagsugpo sa droga" at "malakas na pamumuno," namamantsahan din ang budhi natin ng dugo at putik.

Kailangang marinig din ang tinig ng ibang mga pinuno ng mga relihiyon – mapa-Katoliko man o hindi – sa labang nagsusulong ng maprinsipyong pulitika at demokrasya.

Dahil laban din ito para sa kaligtasan ng ating kaluluwa. – Rappler.com

In February 2018, I had the honor to board the iconic“Rainbow Warrior” during its “Climate Justice Ship Tour“ in the Philippines. It is the first purpose-built environmental campaigning ship specifically made for Greenpeace, and is one of the most energy-efficient ships in the high seas today.

Intended to support Filipinos most affected by the brunt of climate change, the tour inspired solidarity in local communities across the nation. Filipinos bravely faced fossil fuel corporations to demand that they take responsibility for the climate crisis. This year, the most iconic ship in the Greenpeace fleet returns to our islands to campaign against one of the greatest threats presently affecting every form of life on Earth: plastic pollution. (READ: Philippine survey shows 'shocking' plastic waste)

Plastic is not just a waste disposal problem. It does not just stem from a lack of discipline and littering. Plastic pollution is an issue that urgently needs policy and power to ultimately change its path of destruction.

Ignorance is not an excuse

Before I began my humble journey as a volunteer for the non-profit organization Communities Organized for Resource Allocation (CORA), we had no idea of how much we did not know. Although we had never considered ourselves to be experts or scientists, we were everyday citizens with a burning desire to make a difference. Even if we had no idea where or how to begin, we believed that the issue of garbage and littering involves a mission that any person could be a part of and easily create a positive impact for the world.

We believed that if every single human being on the planet stopped littering, there would be nothing to clean-up.

However, our coastal clean-up adventures seemed like opening a pandora's box that led to an endless path of horrific discoveries about the true effects of plastic pollution on people and the planet.

How in the world did we live our lives not knowing what the world is doing to our environment on a daily basis?

Every day, we are seeing campaigns bombarding social media and the news about various global issues. In this day and age, ignorance of the truth can no longer be an excuse for inaction. 

Choosing between planet and plastic

Coastal clean-ups do aid in recovering the plastic that is already out there, and this type of volunteer action positively contributes to the rehabilitation of polluted ecosystems. However, it took a few projects for us to realize that our efforts were futile unless the production of single-use plastics is stopped completely. (READ: Single-use plastic ban in Mimaropa proposed)

On a planet of almost 8 billion people, landfills can no longer be considered as solution for the waste generated by a rapidly growing population. The simple acts of reducing use, recycling, composting, and making an effort to lower our daily carbon footprint are important in creating a sustainable future for all. But above all, more responsibility should be exercised by people, organizations, and entities who can – and must – do more.

We are at the dawn of a new era, and as we transition into a new way of life, we look to our political leaders and to the people in power to lead the way toward a more sustainable future.

The banning of plastics has been pledged by many nations, and some have already begun their plastic-free journey. But we must not forget that local communities will need assistance as we progress and move forward. (WATCH: What can you do about plastic pollution)

As what Barack Obama said, “we are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change, and the last generation that can do something about it.” In the same vein, I say, we are the last generation who can solve the problem of single-use plastic pollution. The youth deserve the right not just to survive, but to thrive to their fullest potential in a beautiful world free from suffering, inequality, and the aftermath of climate change.

I am joining Greenpeace’s “Ship it Back” tour to show that I have signed up and that I have committed to the simple act of refusing single-use plastics in my everyday life. More importantly, I am adding my name to the three million people globally who are calling on corporations to address their single-use plastic production, and to tell them that we must usher in a new era of alternative delivery systems.

Join us aboard the Rainbow Warrior as we explore the oceans of the Philippines to campaign against plastic pollution. One signature stands for one less plastic item in our seas. Your daily choices are powerful. Together, let’s make each choice count.  – Rappler.com

Antoinette Taus is the founder of the non-profit organization CORA, and the social enterprise “The Sustainable Planet”. She is the United Nations Ambassador for DG 14: Life Below Water, the “Clean Seas Pilipinas” Movement, and the United Nations Development Program. She is also an ambassador and environmental champion for the Department of Environment and Natural Resources. 

The Rainbow Warrior is in the Philippines for the “Ship it Back” tour to campaign against plastic pollution. Sign the petition via www.greenpeace.org.ph/shiptheplasticback.

For more information, visit Greenpeace Philippines Facebook, Twitter and Instagram pages.

The 2019 elections are two short months away. Reports appear to be confusing. It’s not clear who the Dutertes are supporting. The “ruling party,” PDP-Laban, Sarah Duterte’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HP), and Duterte himself have separate Senate slates. Worst, Duterte and daughter Sara support competing candidates in several places.

In San Juan City, Sarah endorsed the mayoral bid of Janella Ejercito on February 27. Days before, on February 23, Duterte endorsed Ejercito’s rival, Francis Zamora. They did the same thing in Zamboanga City. In Isabela province, Sara and her Hugpong candidates appeared at opposing parties’ rallies. The President’s daughter said she and her slate were doing that because they need to "make friends with a lot of people."

Underlying this seeming confusion is the logic of local politics. Even the national contests for party list and Senate elections are dominated by local clan dynamics. The reason why the slates do not have candidates for all 12 available positions is to enable local clans to negotiate the remaining slots with other candidates.

Sara Duterte’s 2019 election strategy is anchored on mobilizing political clans. Except for pushing Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and Francis Tolentino, and half-heartedly supporting a shifting number of other candidates, including singer Freddie Aguilar, Duterte has left organizing for the election to Sara.

The campaign of Duterte people harks back to old style campaigning: song and dance, jokes, often risqué. They avoid issues and have refused to debate opposition Senate candidates.

It’s not all caritela politics, however. The expenditures for TV ads have been phenomenal. Senatorial candidates alone have already spent a combined P2.4 billion even before the start of the formal campaign period. This, for a position that pays only around P260,000 a month.

According to the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, Bong Go is the top spender, with P422.5 million. He declared a net worth of only P12.9 million in his SALN. Imee Marcos came in second, having spent P413.1 million. Roxas placed third with a pre-campaign expense of P401 million.

May the surveys be with you

A lot of attention is focused on periodic surveys of the senatorial race. The Senate is the only one with potential impact on national politics in the second half of Duterte’s term. The party list elections have for all intents and purposes become local contests with the exception of a few parties such as Akbayan.

While missteps and other unpredicted events can affect the performance of individual candidates, the overall trends at this time are likely to carry through to election day. The leaders, sure winners, are Grace Poe and Cynthia Villar. Former senators Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid, reelectionists Sonny Angara and Nancy Binay consistently occupy the top half of the senatorial surveys.

The second half has former senators Mar Roxas, Jinggoy Estrada, Serge Osmeña, reelectionists Koko Pimentel, Bam Aquino, and “newbie” Bong Go, jostling for the 6 remaining slots, changing places from one survey to another. Presidential Assistant Bong Go (otherwise known as the national "photo bomber") has jumped from out of nowhere to Number 6 in one survey.

In one recent survey, billed as an SWS survey, his PR people claimed he had pole vaulted to Number 3. But this boomeranged when SWS publicly said they did no such survey. The two other Duterte “favorites” – Dela Rosa and Tolentino – have remained outside the “magic 12.”

Some analysts say the Senate race is a referendum on the Duterte administration. Opposition “Otso Diretso” candidates are not sure if they want this to happen, given the still high Duterte numbers. If current trends continue, only two of the Otso Diretso candidates are likely to win, Roxas and Aquino.

Duterte would “lose” if only one of his 3 favorite candidates win. Sara will for sure claim victory since she has opportunistically endorsed the stronger candidates. But as one analyst put it, the political stances of reelectionists and returness are “ambiguous” – they may or may not support Duterte initiatives such as a shift to federalism.

There are two developments with possible major, if uncertain, impact on the Senate race. One, martial law in Mindanao, could see the return of major cheating especially in Muslim areas as in past elections. With greater Duterte control over Mindanao, he could manipulate who wins the 10th to 12th slots.

The prolonged, disgusting fight over pork barrel between Malacañang, the Arroyo-led House, and the Senate could mean a reenacted budget until Congress reconvenes after the May elections, giving Duterte greater control over resources. But this might be a prize he does not want, because it will mean a lot of angry local politicians who will be deprived of financial resources. They may get angry with him as much as Speaker Arroyo.

Duterte campaign tactics have detracted from the national character of the Senate race, one might say even debased it. After Imee Marcos was called out for lying about graduating from the University of the Philippines College of Law and from Princeton University, Sara had the effrontery to say honesty does not count, and all politicians lie.

The Otso Diretso challenge to Duterte candidates to debate national issues has retained media attention for weeks, Sara first calling the challenge, then when none of her candidates turned up at one scheduled event, said it is unimportant, then with typical Duterte “macho,” said she would debate all 8 Otso Diretso candidates by herself.

Political clans have not disappeared. Duterte has made them stronger. Duterte’s shoot-from-the-hip style of governance and more pervasive incompetence has weakened the central government. Combined with this election campaign, the balance between local and central government has markedly shifted.

Duterte may have failed to impose federalism through constitutional change, but inadvertently he has strengthened local governments by strengthening political clans. Proposals for federalism through Cha-Cha, most importantly that of PDP-Laban and the ConCom, seek a balance between giving more power to local governments and strengthening the central government at the same time.

Duterte has given us the worst possible outcome, weakening central government institutions and strengthening political dynasties who control local governments. – Rappler.com

Joel Rocamora is a political analyst and a seasoned civil society leader. An activist-scholar, he finished his PhD in Politics, Asian Studies, and International Relations in Cornell University, and had been the head of the Institute for Popular Democracy, the Transnational Institute, the Akbayan Citizens’ Action Party, and member to a number of non-governmental organizations. From the parliament of the streets, he crossed over to the government and joined Aquino's Cabinet as the Lead Convenor of the National Anti-Poverty Commission.

The appointment of former budget secretary Benjamin E. Diokno as governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) leaves a void in the Duterte Cabinet and economic team.

The question is, who is best suited to be the next budget secretary? What traits should he or she possess?

I argue that the next budget chief should have both technical competence and political savvy. He must also embody integrity in public service.

Role of budget secretary

The DBM secretary is not only in charge of the wise and efficient allocation of public resources through the crafting of the annual national budget, but also holds the financial carrot and stick to forward the administration's governance and reform agenda. He/she will identify and weigh the priorities of the government, considering that funding is limited.

For instance, should more money be channeled to Build, Build, Build or to local government projects? What programs should take a backseat so more investments could be made in education, healthcare and other social services? 

The DBM secretary also chairs the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), composed of members from the Department of Finance, National Economic and Development Authority, the Office of the President, and the BSP as a resource institution.

Together, they set the all-important economic and fiscal targets like inflation, economic growth, revenue collection, government spending, and the level of the fiscal deficit. In fact, the DBM secretary would be an economic manager more than a political emissary to Congress. This suggests the preference for a technocrat who is independent and can withstand political pressures.

It will surely help that the DBM as an institution is a well-oiled machine, staffed with experienced civil servants and career executives. Nevertheless, the DBM and budget reform agenda will only go as far as the leader will take them.

Issues at hand

Having laid down the qualifications of an ideal DBM chief, here are some of the concerns that the next budget secretary will have to grapple with:

1) Reenacted budget and new budget cycle.  This is the 3rd month that government is operating under a reenacted budget. As of this writing, the legislative has yet to transmit the enrolled copy of the General Appropriations bill to Malacañang.

Before being signed into law, the President may also use his line-item veto power for the budget, as authorized by the Constitution. Hopefully, the 2019 General Appropriations Act (GAA) will be out by this month.

But this stresses the need for urgency. The next secretary must devise a catch-up plan and coordinate with implementing agencies to speed up project implementation. It is too early to estimate foregone government disbursements due to a partially reenacted budget, but the risks remain on the downside. 

Consider also that the DBM has begun preparing the 2020 National Expenditure Program. In the next six months, the DBM secretary will be looking at an approved 2019 budget and the proposed 2020 budget for Congress to scrutinize – all while still adjusting to his new post.

2) Averting underspending.  As mentioned, the DBM secretary is also an economic manager who oversees state spending. He/she will also have big shoes to fill after the government finally reversed 12 straight years of underspending in fiscal year 2018.

Underspending happens when government fails to disburse funds compared to its fiscal program. In simple terms, disbursements refer to actual payment of cash (from the Treasury) for government programs and projects.

This is the most accurate gauge of government spending, not appropriations (what Congress authorizes the government to spend in a given time period) or obligations (just finding a contractor for a project even if it has yet to be implemented and payment has yet to be made). Disbursements are also used to measure the fiscal deficit (which refers to government revenues less disbursements).

At a time when government spending is rising steadily as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), and given plans of the present administration to Build, Build, Build (see Figure 1), it is necessary for the next DBM chief to sustain this performance.

For a developing country with pressing investment needs, underspending is a wasted opportunity. 

3) Cash-based budgeting.  Which then brings us to cash-based budgeting, one of the reforms introduced by former budget secretary Diokno. This scheme essentially limits the validity of funds from two years to just one year, thus changing incentives.

At the same time, funds will be considered "spent" if and only if they have been disbursed (not just obligated) with payment being allowed up to the first quarter of the following year.

The gradual shift to cash-based budgeting is precisely why underspending was reversed last year (see Figures 2 and 3).

Hopefully, the next DBM secretary will appreciate the importance of this reform and continue it.

Crossing fingers

For now, Undersecretary Janet B. Abuel has been appointed Acting Secretary of the DBM, but it remains to be seen if the President will name a successor in the near future (or after the May 2019 elections, with a ban on new appointments kicking in later this month).

As a bar topnotcher, holder of multiple master’s degrees, and with decades of experience at the DBM under her belt, Atty Abuel surely has what it takes to lead this important institution. She is competent, apolitical, seasoned, and honest. I would appoint her as budget secretary if I were President, but I'm not.

For the sake of policy continuity, it would be best for the DBM to be led by a technocrat and not a politician. Reversing the budget and fiscal gains that have been realized in recent years would prove inimical to the Philippine economy, and consequently, the Filipino people.

So back to the question: who is the next budget secretary? It's quite futile to speculate at this point, but let’s cross our fingers that the President makes the best choice possible. – Rappler.com

Adrian G. Glova holds a Bachelor's Degree in Economics (magna cum laude) from the UP School of Economics and is now pursuing his Masters of Science degree in Statistics at the UP School of Statistics. He was an executive assistant to Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno at the DBM for 2.5 years. The author's views do not reflect the views of the Department of Budget and Management.

Many government officials and their supporters have been bashing college students when they protest and take to the streets or to social media their stand against the Duterte administration's glaring errors. These glaring errors, to name a few, are about the brutal war on drugs, the burial of Ferdinand Marcos at the Libingan ng mga Bayani, and dubious deals with China. (READ: Top issues and controversies under Duterte)

People would argue that students should not meddle with public or civic affairs, but instead, should focus only on their studies.

The problem with such advice is two things. First, it discredits the role of the Filipino youth in nation-building. Second, it views university education to be centered only on technical skills training and confined within the walls of the classroom. (READ: Youth activism: More than just organized action)

Youth in nation-building

The important role of the Filipino youth in nation-building is enshrined in Section 13 of Article 2 of the 1987 Constitution, which mentions in part that the State should encourage youth involvement in public and civic affairs.

Moreover, Section 2 of Republic Act No. 8044, known as the Youth in Nation-Building Act, states that youth development efforts should (1) promote the youth's realization that they themselves can improve their quality of life; (2) inculcate desirable values in the youth so they adhere to the pursuit of truth and justice; (3) encourage youth involvement and participation in policy making and program implementation to reduce poverty; and (4) mobilize the youth's wellspring of enthusiasm to free our people from fear, hunger, and injustice.

Given these statements, to instruct the youth not to be involved in public and civic affairs is not only unconstitutional, but directly runs contrary to the various ways the youth can be involved in nation-building.

Tertiary education is not only focused on equipping students with a particular set of technical skills to prepare them for their chosen profession. It has a required number of General Education (GE) courses that students need to take so that they have a foundation for technical training and foster their ability to think beyond their areas of specialization.

University education

However, these GE courses are also based on liberal education with the primary goal of promoting students' critical thinking and increasing their awareness of the world around them. In the University of the Philippines' GE Framework, it states that general courses are the synergistic relationship between the sciences and the humanities so that students are prompted to engage with issues and realities of their own times as citizens with integrity.

In Catholic universities, part of their additional GE courses are Theology subjects that are anchored upon Catholic social teachings, which are Gospel principles in relation to current social issues that prompt individuals to pursue the Christian mission of justice, peace, and care for creation.

On top of this, we now have an Outcomes Based Education (OBE) framework required by the Commission on Higher Education through CMO No. 46, series of 2012. This requires students' learning to be primarily measured by their ability to perform tasks, with less focus on traditional written examinations.

When one applies the OBE to GE courses, then it is inevitable for students not only to be aware of the world around them, but also to engage the world they live in, especially when they see the government doing things that run contrary to what they learn in school.

In addition, the existence of Service-Learning (S-L) courses, such as the Civic Welfare Training Service and Literacy Training Service of the National Service Training Program, require students to address problems in grassroots communities. Alongside similar S-L courses offered in tertiary institutions in the country, studies have shown that when students are engaged in communities, they develop a deep sense of social responsibility and actualize their commitments for social change. (READ: 'Traitor to youth': Groups slam NYC chief’s proposal vs 'anti-government' scholars)

Given the existence of GE courses, OBE, and S-L in schools, we will expect more of student activism as the government commits more glaring errors and abuse of power.

Thus, we can truly say that many students become involved in the country's public and civic affairs because they are exercising their constitutional right and studying well to effectively work for social change. – Rappler.com

Mark Anthony Abenir is an associate professor and director of the Simbahayan Community Development Office of the University of Santo Tomas in Manila. He is also a development worker and serves as chairman of the Community Development Society of the Philippines.

The water crisis seems to have crept up on all of us. But it really shouldn’t have. 

Since last week, thousands of households in Metro Manila have been reeling from intermittent to zero water supply.

Without sufficient warning, Manila Water cut the water supply in at least 6 cities in Metro Manila and 7 towns in nearby Rizal province. 

In many instances, the problem goes way beyond mere inconvenience. Some people have reportedly stopped going to work or sending their kids to school entirely because they haven’t had water for almost a week. In many places such as hospitals, the water shortage could easily result in life-threatening scenes.

Note, too, that summer hasn’t even been declared by the weather bureau. Until the rains come back, many fear this burgeoning water crisis could last for some time.

In this article let’s trace the roots of this water crisis and outline possible ways out of it. 

Lower supply, higher demand

At the heart of this water crisis lies the basic issue of supply and demand.

Picture in your mind a bathtub. To empty it of water quickly, you need only close the faucet and keep the drain open.

This is essentially what’s happening to the two main reservoirs watering Metro Manila, namely Angat and La Mesa. 

The water level at La Mesa is now at a 12-year low. Figure 1 shows that although the water level typically drops at the beginning of each year, the dip for 2019 has been particularly steep and has yet to reach its projected trough sometime in May.  

Note as well that, since 2017, we’ve been starting each year with progressively less water supply in La Mesa Dam than the year before. 

 Figure 1. Source: Manila Water.

One factor to blame is the El Niño spell, which weather bureau PAGASA warned would be “full-blown” this year.

But this can’t be the whole story since the water level at Angat – from which Metro Manila sources virtually all of its water supply – is still safely above the critical level. 

An official of PAGASA said in Filipino, “If it were El Niño, all dam levels should have dipped as well, but that’s not the case.” 

Other than supply, we also need to look at demand: Manila Water admitted they have had to draw water from La Mesa Dam in order to keep up with ever-higher demand from its customers. 

Every day, Manila Water can only get 1.6 million liters of water from Angat Dam. Yet data show that demand among their customers now reaches as much as 1.75 million liters per day (or 9% higher).  

Figure 2 below shows that since last year the demand faced by Manila Water has been outstripping its fixed supply. Worse, the water shortage is only projected to swell even more in the coming months. 

Figure 2. Source: Manila Water 

Deeper waters

The water crisis betrays the relative states of readiness between Manila Water and Maynilad, which serve the East and West Zones of Metro Manila, respectively.

While both draw water primarily from Angat, a majority or 60% of the total allocation goes to Maynilad and only 40% goes to Manila Water. Herein lies one advantage for Maynilad.

At the same time, whereas Manila Water only draws from Angat Dam for its water needs, Maynilad has alternative sources like smaller reservoirs, deep wells, and nearby Laguna Lake, having been able to expand their water infrastructure in recent years. Herein lies another advantage for Maynilad. 

Manila Water, to be fair, already put forward its proposed Laguna Lake project to augment its supplies. But government via the MWSS turned this down for being “too expensive.” 

Hence, by all indications, Manila Water is now in “deeper waters” than Maynilad (the irony is hard to miss). 

Maynilad has already agreed to share part of its water allocation to Manila Water to abate the latter’s choking supply constraints. Manila Water, meanwhile, is also looking to rotate supplies and adjust water pressure across its network of pipes. 

But beyond these quick fixes, we must look at the long-term solutions just as urgently.

Long-term solutions

First, we need to diversify our water sources and reduce Metro Manila’s singular reliance on Angat. 

To this end, talks are reportedly underway between Manila Water (Ayala-owned) and Enrique Razon Jr. for the new and improved Wawa Dam in Montalban, Rizal. But a legal gridlock is currently hampering this project.

Meanwhile, one of the flagship projects under President Duterte’s Build, Build, Build is the New Centennial Water Source-Kaliwa Dam project, which is expected to supply an additional 600 million liters of water daily to Metro Manila once completed in 2023. 

It is this project that the MWSS favored over the Laguna Lake project put forward by Manila Water despite warnings it could prove more expensive and already too late to avert an impending water crisis.

More significantly, this P12.2-billion project is funded by a Chinese loan requiring that the dam be built by a Chinese contractor, which eventually turned out to be China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC). 

This loan also reportedly entails an interest rate of 2%, which is 8 times higher than the usual interest rate charged by Japanese loans. 

Various groups are also opposing the construction of this dam since it could displace more than a thousand families (mostly indigenous people) and will likely disrupt the local ecosystem and biodiversity in Sierra Madre.

Aside from simply having more water sources, we may also need to take seriously (and fold into the mainstream) so-called “green infrastructure.”

Instead of insisting to build more “grey infrastructure” projects – like your typical dam, reservoir, or treatment plant – many countries are now looking into green infrastructure that deliberately takes into account (and makes use of) the environment’s natural water management systems. 

Finally, we have to take anthropogenic climate change more seriously insofar as it generates more frequent extreme weather events that pose a direct threat to our already susceptible water supplies.

Real crisis 

We’ve taken for granted the structural problems of our water sector for too long. It’s high time we changed that.

Maybe we can start by raising water as a top political issue in the May 2019 elections and beyond.

Rather than sing and dance, the senatorial aspirants will do well to spend their time to explain to the public how they plan to prevent a catastrophic water crisis so many people have been warning about.

Finally, the Duterte administration will do well to divert their energy and time from manufactured crises (like the country’s drug problem) to real crises (like Metro Manila’s water shortage).

But can we rely on them to recognize a real crisis if it was staring them in the face? – Rappler.com

The author is a PhD candidate at the UP School of Economics. His views are independent of the views of his affiliations. Follow JC on Twitter (@jcpunongbayan) and Usapang Econ (usapangecon.com). 

MANILA, Philippines – Are you a student dreading thesis work? History and literature professor Leloy Claudio has a few tips to help you with this incredibly stressful period in your academic life. – Rappler.com

The election season is a period of projecting the future.  Candidates who can capture the electorate through promises and pronouncements of what they can and are willing to do will most likely triumph. President Rodrigo Duterte masterfully did it in the 2016 presidential elections. What better way to excite the people for his presidency but to declare that change is coming?

This is a promise whose appeal lies in its vagueness – vagueness that allowed his campaign to elude the more difficult questions, like what kind of change? And change for whom? Instead, we were offered with easy solutions and exciting possibilities for the country.

The election season has always been run by these kinds of proclamations that facilitate imaginings of tomorrow. What we utterly lack in the process of deliberating on our future government, however, is remembering the past. Election, above anything else, should be a period of reckoning.

This fixation on the future makes us neglect history. Past inclinations are forgotten; landmark and historical errors are shrugged off; former alliances and previous political adversaries vis-à-vis their present coalition are considered irrelevant.

Our forgetfulness as a people may be blamed on the weaknesses of political institutions like defunct political parties, inept measures of accountability, and sheer impunity. More than these, however, is the palpable disregard of our history. What we have is not necessarily a lack of historical knowledge as it is an indifference to memory.

This is quite evident when in 2010, Bongbong Marcos was elected as a senator only 24 years after his dictator father was ousted through the People Power Revolution. It was also in 2010 when even the Makabayan bloc whose members were staunch activists against the Marcos dictatorship saw itself in the same slate with Bongbong Marcos under the ticket of Manny Villar. After serving his term as a senator, Marcos would appraise that he had enough political capital to run for vice president. He placed second, losing to the Liberal Party’s Leni Robredo.

In the presidential election, Joseph Ejercito Estrada finished second less than a decade after he was ousted from Malacañang by a second EDSA Revolution. (READ: Looking back at EDSA II: The political paths of Estrada and Arroyo)

For all of the novelty that the 2016 presidential elections offered, most of us failed or refused to recognize the historical ironies that manifested in this divisive race.

Duterte’s campaign was largely anchored on the dichotomy that he built between the Duterte Diehard Supporters (DDS) and the Dilawans (yellows).

Only few would know that his mother was at the forefront of the anti-Marcos movement in Davao. If Dilawans are those who support the Aquinos, then Soling Duterte was a pioneer. (READ: Meet Davao’s foremost ‘yellow’ activist: Soledad Duterte)  

Duterte’s charisma was founded on his supposed newness. His campaign script hoisted him as an antithesis of trapos (traditional politicians) and old-blooded politicians. His language was crass and brutal. He promised to cut through the red tape of the bureaucracy to get things done. He was not like the elitist Mar Roxas or the trapo Jejomar Binay. He was an original.

History would belie this. He is the patriarch of the ruling Davao dynasty. His populist rhetoric was also not new. The same crassness was also observed with Manuel Quezon, Ramon Magsaysay, and most recently with Joseph Estrada. There has always been a populist tradition in Philippine politics but our historical ineptitude and indifference caused us to be easily blinded by his dark humor and violent comedy.

More than a foundation of our national identity, historical knowledge is indispensable as tools in plotting our future.

Electoral promises as the sole basis in deciding who to vote for is problematic. Plans and platforms publicized during the campaign can melt into thin air after the election. The feeble party system cannot ensure the accountability of the candidate. We cannot hold on to what they say they will do. Everything is hypothetical and imaginary. Thus it is also important to look at the past in assessing the candidate’s competence and integrity.

Retrospective questions are important. What positions have they taken in crucial junctures of our history? Were they consistent in their principles? What are the values that they consider as negotiable, and for what reasons? If they had blundered, have they apologized or acknowledged it at all? Ultimately, in the struggles of power, clashes of moralities, and tests of principle where did they side throughout history?  

Concomitant to learning history is imagining the future. If the knowledge and lessons that we have of our past are flouted, our imaginings of the future should expectantly be flawed. More than learning historical facts, studying history is a commitment to the path that we will take as a nation. The challenge thus, is not just to learn from the past, but to let it count.– Rappler.com

Vec Alporha teaches History at the University of the Philippines in Los Baños. Before joining the faculty, she was chairperson of the University Student Council of UP Baguio. She is set to graduate with an M.A. History degree in UP Diliman this June.  

There should be no question in any normal mind that Leila de Lima is a victim of arbitrary detention. But normal – that is, fair, discerning, and humane – does not appear the nature of the Filipino mindset, judging by the scarce expression of sympathy for her and outrage at her persecution.

To be fair, though, the shortcoming is unintended in some cases and due largely to fear of reprisal, a very real fear, indeed, under the brutal regime of Rodrigo Duterte. 

Definitely among De Lima's boldest supporters are those who visit her in jail. They face the closed-circuit television cameras installed all around the police grounds and, more harshly, the one inside the first room they enter to log in and submit themselves to bag and body search. In another room, 25 to 30 paces out across a walled-in yard that narrows into passageway, the search is repeated, under similar electronic-eye watch – lest, I can only suppose, some contraband come falling out of camera range from the sky above. In fact, no visitor is cleared enough to be left alone: a camera records the entire visit. 

It used to be much easier to visit; a preliminary clearing, decided, I suppose, from what security files may reveal by a computer click on the names of the prospective visitors, used to take a mere week at most; it now takes at least 10 days. I can only presume that more and more people are emboldened to visit. 

De Lima's only time out of detention is when she is taken to her court hearings, although, even then, once out of the van, she is walked to the courthouse and along its corridors by a phalanx of police who crowd her out of sight of sympathizers lining the route. Naturally, any sympathetic attention to her plight, especially from foreign governments and international organizations, inspires hope, such as when the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention released its own findings in her case. And coming as they did on the second anniversary of her detention (on February 24 precisely), those findings must have evoked a particular poignancy. 

The findings were prefaced thus: “The Government has the obligation to respect, protect and fulfill the right to liberty of person and that any national law allowing deprivation of liberty should be made and implemented in conformity with the relevant standards set forth in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other applicable international or regional instruments.”

The Working Group pronounced de Lima a victim of arbitrary detention under 4 of 5 categories of circumstances; the Duterte regime did not manage a sweep only because one category applies exclusively to foreign victims – Sr Patricia Fox, the Australian missionary accused of engaging in leftist politics, would have qualified if she had been detained, not deported.

The Group has established the following: 

One, it was "clearly impossible to invoke any legal basis justifying [de Lima’s] deprivation of liberty." 

Two, her detention resulted "from the exercise of the rights guaranteed by the UDHR [Universal Declaration of Human Rights]." 

Three, there was "non-observance...of the international norms in relation to the right to fair trial...."

And 4, there was "prolonged administrative custody without the possibility of administrative or judicial review or remedy."

In a single, compact document, the Group makes a compelling case of not just arbitrary detention but unmitigated injustice. The case is scandalous enough in its barest summation: Senator Leila de Lima had been arrested and detained on allegations of illegal drug trafficking almost wholly on the testimony of convicts in for life for that precise crime. Since no concrete evidence – drugs or money proceeds from their trafficking or whatever – was found, the charge was downgraded to conspiracy, but she has remained in jail and continued to be denied bail. 

About motives, indications are provided by antecedents going back to the days when De Lima was the chairperson of the Commission on Human Rights and Rodrigo Duterte was the mayor of Davao City and the subject of an inquiry by her commission for allegations of death-squad executions. She continued to hound him when she became justice secretary and afterward senator, and he president. 

Evidently not one able to resist flaunting power and a chance at vengeance, Duterte, since becoming president, had repeatedly warned he was going after De Lima. For their part, the convicts who testified against her apparently did so in common cause: their privileges, including continuing to run their drug racket from inside prison, had been stopped by her.

And to add insult to injustice, the Duterte Supreme Court acquitted former President Gloria Arroyo and granted temporary liberty to Senators Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, and Bong Revilla; all 4 had been taken to court also during De Lima's watch as secretary of justice on suspicions of plunder, a non-bailable crime, and all are now aligned with Duterte.

If anything, the findings of the UN Working Group gives a sense of both what justice may be like properly done and of the untold mockery it has been subjected to in De Lima’s case. – Rappler.com

As a country cursed with an average of 20 tropical cyclones each year, Filipinos have a saint we offer eggs to for clear skies – Santa Clara. The problem is, we seem to lack a patron saint for making rain pour. 

In the absence of divine intervention, one public official even made the tasteless joke of #showertogether using a tabo (dipper). That’s what we have been reduced to nowadays – resorting to insensitive, futile jokes and search for saints – because it seems that solutions, especially the long term ones, aren’t part of our DNA as a people supposedly governed by rules, policies, and contigencies.

Manila Water, the apparent culprit in this water crisis, had raised the alarm since 2016, and again in August last year, predicting that the crisis would happen in 2021. The crisis is two years early.

. 

“Bahala na.” That’s the Filipino phrase for “leave it up to Bathala (God).” 

When asked when the crisis would end, a Manila Water official gave this reply: “Actually, the answer is easy: until it rains.” That’s a bahala na answer, if ever we heard one. The question is: what's the long-term solution?

Manila Water explains that the water crisis is due to low levels at Bulacan’s Angat Dam, which supplies 96% of Metro Manila’s water supply that has to meet a staggering demand of 15 million water users during the day. (That’s a population density higher than Mumbai, Paris, and even Tokyo.) The deficit in supply is supposed to be filled by water from La Mesa Dam in Quezon City, which has hit a critical low level. 

That’s the academic answer to our current woes.

The real answer is that the crisis was the product of short-sightedness that underlines many of our responses to “hand of God” events such as El Niño, La Niña, storm surges, typhoons, landslides, and global warming.

In this case, Manila Water seems to be wallowing in it. The Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) and state weather bureau PAGASA say they do not buy the concessionaire's explanation that El Niño and La Mesa Dam's low water level triggered the service interruptions. Why is Maynilad, the northern counterpart of Manila Water in the metropolis, not as severely affected by the supply crunch? Apparently, Maynilad was able to expand its water infrastructure in recent years to include smaller reservoirs, deep wells, and the nearby Laguna Lake.

The problem is only exacerbated when the Palace itself does not understand the core of the problem. The Palace spokesman probably thought he was being smart when he said the shortage may be "artifiiclal.” 

When his boss commanded –  in true Moses fashion – to “open Angat Dam" and supply water "good for 150 days,” an MWSS official had to bluntly state that President Rodrigo Duterte was ill-advised. Perhaps candidates running under the administration should revise their joke skits to rain dances now?

While public utility Manila Water is part of the problem, the government-run MWSS, which admitted that it is ultimately to blame because "it is the responsibility of government to source all this water," is the orchestra conductor that wields the baton.

We need strategic thinking, not magnanimous confessions of guilt. We need a solution that does not hurt the environment or hand over more power to a foreign loaner. We need water providers and a water regulator that put efficiency and public service first above all other parochial goals and vested interests.

There's one place where the buck stops – Malacañang, past and present. Rappler’s resident economic analyst put it well: The Duterte administration will do well to divert its energy and time from manufactured crises like the country’s drug problem to real crises like Metro Manila’s water shortage. 

The learned helplessness has morphed into a full-blown comedy of errors, as poor Filipinos, hauling and queuing their water pails, become yet again the real casualties of pure inefficiency. – Rappler.com

Dumarating talaga, bihirang-bihira, iyong “Eureka!” moment. Iyong “Whatduh...ang galeng!” moment. Iyong pampamaga sa dati nang namamagang ego na “Ang galing ko, naisip ko pa ’yun! Buti hindi naisip ng iba! Maisulat nga!” moment. 

Sa akin, kanina ang moment na ’yun. Habang nasa kubeta. ’Buti may maayos na supply ng tubig.  

Kanina nangyari, habang pinag-iisipan kong mabuti kung ano ang isusulat sa espasyong ito while doing something biological and hygienic. Mahigpit kasi ang bilin sa akin ng editor: sumulat tungkol sa eleksiyong paparating; something a bit, or pretending to be, educational. At dahil way past deadline na ang aking musings slash nagpapanggap na artikulong ito kaya pinilit kong magkaroon ng intense “Eureka!’ moment. I mustered and expend all my inner forces to summon all my muses. At saka para umiri na rin nang wagas. 

Kaya, heto, sumusulat ng may semblance ng pagsusuri sa isyu ng halalan; pagninilay dahil baka sakaling may magbasa. May magbasang baka sakaling magnilay din at magsuri. Baka sakaling may matauhan o matutuhan kahit wala naman talagang in-your-face na aral na dapat mapulot ang mambabasa. Hindi ko rin gusto ang didactic na panulat.  

Baka sakaling may magbasa lalo iyong hibang na hibang pa rin sa ilusyon at tahasang personality politics ng bansa. Baka sakaling mabasa ng indibidwal na loyal sa pulitiko pero hindi sa kapakanan ng bayan. O, mas malala, iyong nag-e-equate na ang pagsuporta at pagmamahal nang lubos sa pulitiko – lalo iyong pulitikong produkto ng massive PR campaign ang pagkatao at more massive Photoshop skills ang hitsura – ay pagsuporta at pagmamahal na rin nang lubos sa bansa.

Kampanya noong unang panahon

Bago ko ikuwento ang aking “Eureka!” moment kanina, heto muna: pagninilay tungkol sa salitang “kampanya.” 

Noong unang panahong hindi pa tahasan ang personality politics – ganda ng hitsura, galing sumayaw o kumanta, yaman, katanyagan, kasikatan ng lahing pinanggalingan, galing ng tindig at pananalita, karisma, may battery of public relations consultants, may pambili ng mahaba at quality air time. Kapag sumasapit ang halalan, mahalagang salik sa pagpili ng iluluklok na kandidato ang kaniyang plataporma-de-gobyerno.

Noong unang panahong ang kakayahan pa ng kandidato bilang magiging pinuno ang namamayani, mahalagang malaman kung ano ang plano ng kandidatong ito sa kaniyang pamumunuang political unit: barangay, munisipyo, lungsod, lalawigan, o bansa. 

Kaya, halimbawa, sa tuwing miting de avance, o iyong sandali ng pinakamalaking pagtitipon ng mga kandidato sa pampublikong lugar, binibigyan ng pagkakataon ang mga kandidato na sagutin ang mga katanungan ng taumbayan. O magsalita batay sa hangga’t maaari ay hindi rehearsed na pagtatanong. Para hindi iyong planado at may mahigpit na pagsunod sa iskrip ang sasabihin o isasagot. 

Plataporma: Ano ’yun? 

Sa plataporma nakasalig ang panunungkulan. Kung naisakatuparan o hindi ang plataporma sinusukat kung tagumpay o hindi ang pamumuno. Kaya naman, noong unang panahon, ang pagbalangkas ng plataporma, kahit pa sa antas ng barangay, ay isang masusing gawain. Hindi na lang nakakahon sa isang pangungusap na pangako. 

Pinag-iisipang mabuti ang plataporma. Pinagdedebatehan. Mainit na pinagtatalunan. Hindi dapat maging mabulaklak lang na salita. Dapat iyong mapanghahawakan. Dapat matibay. Dapat puwedeng panaligan. Dapat may batayan, may detalye, may malinaw na tatahaking landas ang plataporma.

Sa salitang Pranses na plateforme nagmula ang kilala natin ngayon at nauuso na namang salitang “plataporma.” Literal na nangangahulugan ito bilang flat ground o flat shape sa Ingles. Patag. Dahil sa patag, matibay na makakatayo ang anumang estruktura, literal man gaya ng enatblado o figurative gaya ng plataporma ng pangako.  

Nadagdagan ang kahulugan ng plataporma batay sa naging papel nito sa pulitika. Naging patag na entablado o stage ang platporma o platform kung saan maaaring isalaysay ng kandidato ang kaniyang plano. Pero ang entabladong ito ay hindi na lamang lugar kung saan nangangako ang kandidato. Sa kalagayan ng kampanayahan ngayon, nagtatanghal ang pulitiko.  

Sa Information Technology, sa platform nailalagay ang maraming application tulad na lamang ng social media platform kung saan naglipana ang iba’t ibang aplikasyong nagpapalibang at nagbibigay ng impormasyon sa atin. At, in a way, nagpapahibang na rin. 

Plataporma rin ang tawag sa gilid ng riles ng tren sa estasyon kung saan nakatayo at naghihintay ang mga pasahero. Matibay na plataporma. Maaasahan. Maaaring panaligan. Kung kaya naman, noong unang panahon, sapat na ang isang matibay na plataporma para maluklok ang kandidato. Noong unang panahon iyon. Maaaring hindi na ngayon. 

Showbiz at karnabal na lang

Hindi na tampok na bahagi ng halalan ang plataporma. Naging parang showbiz at karnabal na kasi ang kampanyahan; hindi na sa kung ano ang magagawa nagkakatalo kung sino ang iboboto. Hindi na tampok ang plataporma.  

Umiikli nang umiikli ang plataporma. Wala nang detalye. Puwedeng tagline na lamang ito o slogan na parang sa patalastas sa media. Puwedeng meme sa social media. Nag-evolve na o talagang wala nang plataporma.  

Puwedeng sabihin na lamang kung sa patalastas ang mga katagang “Kalaban ng corrupt!” o “Edukasyon ang solusyon!” Sino nga ba naman ang maglalakas-loob mag-usisa upang ilahad ang detalye ng mga platapormang ito? Wala na. Hindi na magtatanong ang mga supporter-slash-panatiko. Samantalang madali namang makumbinsi ang mga undecided lalo na kung may elaborate media campaign. 

Which leads me to my “Eureka!” moment kanina nga bago ako humarap sa laptop ko. Well, na aaminin kong ini-exaggerate ko lang, ni hindi naman talaga brilliant nor smart. Ni hindi nga nito napalaki ang ego ko. Basta, mukhang maganda lang pagnilayan. 

Heto. Wala nang totoong plataporma, lalo iyong mula sa mga kandidatong produkto na nga lang ng massive PR campaign ang pagkatao at more massive Photoshop skills ang hitsura. Madali silang makilala dahil sa kawalan ng platapormang sa halip ay pinalitan na ng plata+porma. Yes, ang pamagat ng pagninilay kong ito ang “Eureka!” moment ko kanina. Naks. 

Hindi maaasahan ang katuparan 

Plata+porma. Plata o pilak sa Español. Pilak na dati nang simbolo ng kayamanan at kamunduhan. Matatandaang may proverbial silver coins na kasingkahulugan ng pagtataksil sa Bibliya. May bantog na idioms din, gaya ng mga tao na born with a silver spoon sa bunganga. O sa kaso ng ibang matatakaw sa kayamanang kandidato, born with a silver backhoe sa bunganga. Iyan ang plata na sinamahan pa ng “porma” ng kandidato, meaning iyong panlabas na aspekto ng pagkatao nila. Manicured na hitsura, pinlanong dating o angas, inaral na kilos at buka ng bibig, magnified projection.  

Ito na lang ang umiiral sa karamihan. Hayaang ang plata+porma ang mangusap, puro na lang plata at porma ang kampanyahan. 

Wala nang tunay na platapormang ipinahahayag, maliban sa iilang kandiadtong marahil, walang plata o pamporma to begin with.  

At dahil nga wala nang masyadong plataporma, ibig sabihin, hindi na rin maaasahan ang katuparan ng anumang sinabi sa kampanyahan. Pawang mabubulaklak na salita na lamang kasing kay daling malagas sa paglipas ng araw at oras. – Rappler.com 

Bukod sa pagtuturo ng Creative Writing, Pop Culture, and Research sa Unibersidad ng Santo Tomas, Writing Fellow din si Joselito D. Delos Reyes, PhD sa UST Center for Creative Writing and Literary Studies at Research Fellow sa UST Research Center for Culture, Arts and Humanities. Board Member siya ng Philippine Center of International PEN. Siya ang kasalukuyang tagapangulo ng Departamento ng Literatura ng UST.  

Sacrifice should never be forgotten. Especially not the sacrifice of lives.

The Jabidah Massacre is one of the memories we must keep alive, painful as it is. 

Before dawn chased away the darkness on March 18, 1968, Moro military trainees were shot on the Corregidor airstrip. The men who shot these young Moros were their training officers. 

Nearly 200 Tausug and Sama Muslims aged between 18 and 30 from Sulu and Tawi-Tawi were recruited for a military operation. From August to December 1967, the Moro recruits underwent training in Simunul, Tawi-Tawi before being brought to Corregidor Island in Luzon.

The trainees were brought to Corregidor on Jan. 3, 1968 to train in guerrilla warfare in preparation for Operation Plan Merdeka. Instead of a full course of training, they received a lethal rain of bullets on an island honored for the valor of its defenders in World War II.

On Dec. 30, 1967, between 135 and 180 Moro recruits boarded a Philippine Navy vessel headed for Corregidor for “specialized training.” If you visit Corregidor, a Tausug soldier left a piece of graffiti there: “Pvt. Plaza, Ladjasali from Bato-Bato Sulu was here in Corregidor on Jan. 3,/68.” 

The Moro recruits were promised an allowance of P50 a month, but received no payment. They ate dried fish and had to use leftover rice to make coffee while their commanders lived in luxury. 

The recruits sought the aid of then President Ferdinand Marcos, and the letter they sent may have been intercepted by their commanders – and it may have been the reason they were shot dead in a massacre that later lit the fires of secession in Mindanao.

I’ve been writing about Jabidah annually over the past 5 years because it is part of our narrative. We must keep the story alive. This will keep us grounded in our history as a people—not just the Bangsamoro, but all Filipinos who need to know what the roots of the war in Mindanao were.

The massacre was the grisly fruit of Oplan Merdeka, taken from the the Malay word for “freedom.” The late Senator Benigno S. Aquino Jr. spoke of this in a privilege speech delivered at the Legislative Building on March 28, 1968. Aquino said Oplan Merdeka was a secret operation to destabilize the disputed territory of North Borneo (also called Sabah), which had been ‘incorporated’ into the Malaysian Federation after the British granted the federation independence in 1957. 

The disputed territory in North Borneo belongs to the Sultanate of Sulu. It was rented out via  a padjak lease agreement to the British East India Co. in 1878 by the Sultan of Sulu. 

Dispute with Malaysia

The claim of the Sultanate remains active even now, though there is no progress in actually reclaiming the territory. 

The Malaysian government says this territory belongs to its federation, yet it pays annual rental to the heirs of the Sultan of Sulu as per the padjak. If that is not a tacit recognition of the sultanate’s ownership of North Borneo, I don’t know what it is.

This disputed parcel of land is part of the Moro homeland. It was given by the Sultan of Borneo to the Sultan of Sulu for the bravery of the Tausug warriors of the Sultanate of Sulu who helped the Sultan of Borneo put down a rebellion. That land was won with Tausug blood. 

Aquino said that if Oplan Merdeka resulted in a formal complaint by Malaysia before the United Nations, the Jabidah unit would be disavowed and the government would lie by saying these Moros were part of the private army of Sultan Kiram of Sulu. 

It took the Jabidah Massacre to push some Muslim leaders to establish the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). It took that to spark a movement to create separate Moro homeland in Mindanao.

Twenty-three of the military personnel involved in Oplan Merdeka were court-martialed, as reported by the press then. The case found its way to the Supreme Court in 1970, on a preliminary issue. The number of deaths in the Jabidah Massacre varies between 10 and 68, depending on who tells the story. 

Five decades and a year have passed. There is no closure for this injustice yet. Now that the Bangsamoro region begins work to rebuild our homeland, we must remember the sacrifice in lives that has led to this moment: It will keep us focused on our goals of self-determination, peace and prosperity, even as we keep these brave souls in our prayers. – Rappler.com

Writer and former journalist Amir Mawallil is a member of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority.

On March 8, administration senatorial candidate Bong Go issued a press release entitled “Bong Go: surge in senatorial race largely due to People’s Trust in the Duterte Administration.”

The press release claims: “In the latest Social Weather Stations survey, conducted February 25-28, 2019, Go received the approval of 47 percent of the respondents to claim solo third place, from  his 5^th to 6^th place finish in the survey conducted last January 23-26, 2019.” 

In response to the supposed “surge” in survey rankings, Bong Go thanked the people saying, “Nakakataba ng puso at nakakawala ng pagod, laolong-lalo na po kung dumarami ang naniniwala sa inyo. From bottom before, unti-unting (tayong) umangat.” (It is heartwarming and makes the hard work worth it, especially if more and more people believe in you. From the bottom before, we've slowly risen.)

On the same day Go issued the statement, MindaNews ran a story on the survey, but carried a disclaimer from SWS president, Dr Mahar Mangahas: “It is unethical for you to use anything that is not on our website…Do not gratify propagandists who cannot back up their claims. Ask whoever released it to justify the release; whoever publishes something is legally bound to conform to Comelec full-disclosure rules on election survey publication.” 

PhilStar.com and Interaksyon ran stories on the survey as well, and also carried SWS' announcement that the public should rely only on survey results the polling firm posts on its website. The two news sites took down their stories without explanation. 

SWS didn't release any preference survey from that period, although Pulse Asia released its February 24-28 survey showing Go has risen to 3th to 5th slot. 

Regardless of whether Pulse Asia eventually confirmed candidate Go's improving performance in the campaigns, a person or political camp – presumably Go's – committed an election offense for leaking an unauthenticated table or incomplete survey results from another polling firm.  

Potent campaign tool 

As we have seen in recent years, survey trends have become a most potent campaign tool. Along with other factors, like popularity and media exposure, they can catapult a candidate to victory. This strategy cashes in on the so-called “bandwagon effect” or that herd mentality that make individuals alter their opinions to conform to the majority view, such as political outcomes. With the “bandwagon effect,” voters will want to be on the winning side, so they will more likely vote for candidates who are likely to win.

This voting tendency was the subject of the 1994 study “The Vanishing Marginals, the Bandwagon, and the Mass Media” by Robert K. Goidel and Todd G. Shields involving 180 students at the University of Kentucky. The study confirmed that electoral expectations play a significant role in individual-level vote choices, even transcending partisan and ideological identification. The study yielded these interesting conclusions:

• When a Democrat is expected to win, independent Republican leaners and weak Republicans are more likely to vote for that Democratic candidate. In some instances, the swaying effect of electoral expectations can even affect die-hard Republicans. 
• Independents or those who do not politically identify as either Republican or Democrat are heavily influenced by the presence of expectations. According to the study, independents are twice as likely to vote for the candidates who are expected to win.

While no formal study has been conducted in the Philippines, experience gives you reason to believe that this “bandwagon effect”could have a more potent effect here, given our very weak political party culture, personality-driven elections (rather than platform or ideology), low political maturity, and poor literacy rate. 

Recognizing the potency of surveys in shaping electoral choices, Congress passed in 2001 Republic Act No. 9006 or the Fair Election Act, which regulates election surveys. It mandates that, during the election period, no person, natural as well as juridical, candidate, or organization is allowed to publish a survey without disclosing the following attendant information: 

(a) The name of the person, candidate, party or organization who commissioned or paid for the survey 

(b) The name of the person, polling firm, or survey organization who conducted the survey 

(c) The period during which the survey was conducted, the methodology used, including the number of individual respondents and the areas from which they were selected, and the specific questions asked

(d) The margin of error of the survey 

(e) For each question for which the margin of error is greater than that reported under paragraph (d), the margin of error for that question

(f) A mailing address and telephone number, indicating it as an address or telephone number at which the sponsor can be contacted to obtain a written report regarding the survey in accordance with Subsection 5.3. 

The law also mandates that the survey, together with its supporting raw data, should be made available for inspection, copying, and verification by the Commission on Elections, a registered political party, a bona fide candidate, or by any Comelec-accredited citizen's arm. 

The main purpose of this regulation is not only transparency, but verifiability of the information released. Violation of any of these rules on surveys is an election offense punished with imprisonment of not less than one year but not more than 6 years and shall not be subject to probation. 

Rules cover candidates, political parties too

Now, did Bong Go violate any of these rules on surveys and thus can be subject to imprisonment? The regulation applies not only to survey firms like SWS, but covers candidates like Bong Go and registered political parties like PDP-Laban and Hugpong ng Pagbabago where he belongs.

To be clear, the Fair Election Act does not penalize the act of releasing or using surveys per se. An election offense is committed when the candidate or camp fails to attach to the press release all the required truthful and relevant information on the survey, like the methodology, the areas covered, the specific questions asked, and the margin of error, among others. 

Can Bong Go be held liable if he only issued a press release about his alleged rating or surge in ranking, but not the supposed leaked survey table? Yes. The “survey” that is subject to regulation is mere “measurement of opinions and perceptions of the voters as regards a candidate's popularity, qualifications, platforms or a matter of public discussion in relation to the election, including voters' preference for candidates or publicly discussed issues during the campaign period.”

Thus, claims of popularity or surge in preference purportedly on the basis of survey is undeniably covered and comes within the purview of the law. Thus, Go's press release should have complied with the Fair Election Act. – Rappler.com 

Emil Marañon III is an election lawyer specializing in automated election litigation and consulting. He is one of the election lawyers consulted by the camp of Vice President Leni Robredo, whose victory is being contested by former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Marañon served in Comelec as chief of staff of retired Comelec Chairman Sixto Brillantes Jr. He is a partner at Trojillo Ansaldo and Marañon (TAM) Law Offices.  

Here’s the hard truth: Alternative candidates like Samira Gutoc, Florin Hilbay, Chel Diokno, Neri Colmenares and Romy Macalintal might be viral on social media. They might even do well in widely televised debates.

But people still don’t know who they are.

If I were to rely on my social media sphere (read: echo chamber), it is mostly the youth who get excited by these alternative candidates. To them, these candidates represent positive change. They are idealistic, passionate, and progressive.

Pulse Asia must therefore be a party pooper.

According to its most recent survey, the usual suspects occupy the top slots. The surnames are unsurprising (some might even say uninspiring): Poe, Villar, Go, Angara, Lapid, Cayetano, and Dela Rosa.

What’s going on?

Alternative candidates are nowhere to be found in the so-called Magic 12. There are two ways to analyze the situation.

On the one hand, we can appreciate what hard work does when it comes to campaigning. Colmenares, for example, is inching his way up.

The same can be said about Bong Go, who used to be nowhere. Now he is in the top 3. He literally goes around the country to visit fire victims, give donations, and deliver speeches. Say what you want about his ubiquitous posters but they are effective.

In spite of his rhetoric, Bong Go of course is not an alternative candidate because he simply echoes the interests of the administration.

On the other hand, the survey reveals a very important pattern. Those who have made it to the top have public awareness of at least 87%. This is the proportion of Filipino adults who have heard, read, or seen anything about these candidates.

Contrast this to that of the alternatives. Colmenares has only 62%, Diokno 39%, Macalintal 32%, Gutoc 19%, and Hilbay 13%. How can they make the cut if the general public does not even know them to begin with?

But here a caveat is called for. To win the elections is not just about popularity as many portray it to be.

Translating popularity into votes is another matter altogether. Freddie Aguilar is an example. 89% of Filipinos know him, but only 7.3% will vote for him.

Juan Ponce Enrile, who wants you to be happy, is known among 97%. But only 25% are voting for him.

What can we do?

This bit is very telling: Pulse Asia reports that only 37% of likely voters have a complete senatorial slate.

This means that slots are still up for grabs. This also means that now is not the time for alternative candidates and their supporters to lose hope.

To be sure, the way the campaign works favors those who already have the institutional and financial resources. Television, radio, and print ads remain influential but also expensive.

But there’s only so much that traditional media can do.

Hard work lies in groundwork. Alternative candidates and their supporters need to be visible – and make sense – around the country. In their local sorties and meetings, they need to show what makes them worthwhile alternatives.

Why? Because people are no longer beholden to traditional names. Here I offer a counterintuitive observation. If people still relied on traditional politics, then the survey’s topnotchers would not even make an effort to talk about their achievements.

And yet even Imee Marcos cannot escape this fact. She has mastered the art of transcending attacks on her integrity by appealing to her achievements. She presents herself as a woman of solution. And she is up there.

At the same time, groundwork is an opportunity to deepen the quality of our fragile democracy. Relying on celebrity and revelry assumes that voters are still unthinking.

But certain issues matter to people. Inflation, wages, and employment are important. And so too are environmental destruction, the loss of livelihood, and the water crisis especially in most affected areas around the country.

All these concerns are policy-related. But this is how alternative candidates are put to test: Do they really care about the issues that matter to people? And can they talk about them well?

No, it’s not about change

Alternative candidates love to talk about change. But harping on change can only backfire. A popular and highly trusted administration will not be replaced.

In this light, alternative candidates and their supporters need to ask the most fundamental question. What exactly do they offer?

Many who are disillusioned by the survey results blame the voters themselves. They readily accuse them of stupidity.

That is one big mistake.

Their energy must be put elsewhere. Every conversation in every opportunity must convince people that they can place their trust in alternative candidates.

This is a long shot. But if we are really convinced that our government needs better leaders, we better get out of our echo chambers. – Rappler.com

Jayeel Cornelio, PhD is Associate Professor and the Director of the Development Studies Program at the Ateneo de Manila University. His current research is on young people’s aspirations in post-conflict Marawi. Follow him on Twitter @jayeel_cornelio.

In a January Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines event, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the security environment in the country, both internally and externally, has not changed in the past 10 years.

Although bilateral relations with China have improved since President Rodrigo Duterte became president in July 2016, the retired army general said the competing territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea remain to be the Philippines’ biggest security challenge.

The situation could be much worse because the Philippines could be dragged into the escalating tension between the United States and China as the US Navy stepped up its “freedom of navigation operations” in the strategic waterway and would likely expand to the Taiwan Straits and the Senkaku islands in the north.

“We will not surrender any part of our territory,” Lorenzana said, adding that the July 2016 ruling issued by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in favor of Manila is “valid and legitimate.”

Last March 10, the defense secretary visited Hanoi to return a favor made by his Vietnamese counterpart, General Ngo Xuan Lich, who was in Manila in October 2017 during the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting at Clark Field.

It took more than a year for Lorenzana to reciprocate the gesture of Vietnam’s top defense official and observers wondered where the strategic partnership relations between Manila and Hanoi were headed Philippines’ foreign policy towards China turned 180 degrees in 2016.

Highs and lows

Manila and Hanoi have had love-hate relations over the past 50 years.

They were close allies in the 1960s until mid-1970s during the Vietnam War, with the Philippines sending several batches of soldiers to help the United States stop communist advances in Indo-China. The U.S. was humiliated in that war.

Relations between Manila and Hanoi turned upside down when the North won and reunited the two Vietnams together. But, before the communists won, Manila could not forget the treachery of South Vietnam when it seized control of Southwest Cay, locally known in the Philippines as Pugad island in the Spratly.

Pugad was originally held by the Vietnamese, but Filipino soldiers took control of the island in 1968 when former president Ferdinand Marcos began expansion in the South China Sea, building an airstrip on Thitu island, or Pagasa Island.

Before Saigon fell, there were stories that the Vietnamese sent prostitutes as gifts to the commander of Philippine troops celebrating his birthday on nearby Northeast Cay, or Parola island. The soldiers on Southwest Cay crossed to the next island to join the party.

After the merrymaking, the Filipino soldiers were surprised to see the Vietnamese flag flying on Southwest Cay, the second biggest feature occupied by Vietnam to this day.

Strategic partners

Forty years later, the two Southeast Asian countries have become strategic partners as both face a larger threat from China, which started building manmade islands in the Spratly and putting up military structures, including secured ports, airstrips and missile platforms.

Under the former administration of president Benigno Aquino III, relations with Vietnam strengthened with the signing of a defense cooperation agreement in October 2010, which put up a mechanism on exchange of visits, training, information sharing, and maritime law enforcement.  

Vietnam’s most powerful warships, two missile-guided frigates, made port calls in Manila and a Philippine Navy logistics vessel visited Vietnam soon after.

But the most visible and significant cooperation between the two countries is on the treatment of fishermen caught within their respective territorial waters.

Twice, President Rodrigo Duterte personally sent off Vietnamese fishermen caught by the Philippine Navy poaching in the country’s territorial waters, and Vietnamese troops reciprocated the kindness by helping distressed Filipino fishermen found adrift near Vietnam’s occupied islands in the Spratly. This month, Vietnamese fishermen rescued two Filipinos from the high seas.

Vietnamese soldiers deployed in the Spratly have been playing friendly soccer, volleyball and tug-o-war games with Filipino Marines and soldiers since 2014, a symbolic gesture of how once-suspicious neighbors have been tearing down walls of distrust to build cooperation.

Lorenzana’s quiet visit to Hanoi early this month added to the warming of ties of both countries. But more needs to be done.

Guarding the seas

The two countries’ navies should broaden and deepen cooperation by expanding staff-to-staff dialogue through more frequent interactions among troops in the disputed territories, increase in ship visit exchanges, and the establishment of a direct navy-to-navy hotline.

Communications between the two navies are still coursed through the embassies through defense and armed forces attaches (DAFAs). It would easier if the navy chiefs of the two countries have a direct access to each other so they could easily resolve issues and avoid any accidents or problems in the South China Sea.

As China expands its anti-access/area denial (A2AD) strategy in the South China Sea to push away the United States and other regional powers, like Australia and Japan, it has also affected fishermen in the region, driving away Vietnamese, Malaysian, Indonesian, Taiwanese, Hong Kong and Philippine fishermen outside their traditional, rich fishing grounds.

Sooner or later, this could pose a big problem to Filipino fishermen who will be competing with larger boats from other Asian countries. Fishermen in Bataan, Zambales and Pangasinan have started complaining of low catch and the destruction of their “payao” by Vietnamese fishermen within 20 to 30 miles from the shorelines in the South China Sea.

Better security relations with Vietnam could address this potential diplomatic and economic problem, underlining the need for the hotline not only for maritime law enforcement but for the navy as well. – Rappler.com

A veteran defense reporter who won the Pulitzer in 2018 for Reuters' reporting on the Philippines' war on drugs, the author is a former Reuters journalist.

There’s every reason to be wary of China’s involvement in the Kaliwa Dam project.

In the wake of Metro Manila’s surprise water shortage – which should not have been a surprise at all – the Duterte government presented to the people a timely if convenient solution: the New Centennial Water Source-Kaliwa Dam Project.

Located in Quezon province, the Kaliwa Dam project is expected to supply Metro Manila an additional 600 million liters of water per day (MLD). 

This dam has been on the drawing board for decades, but the project only got greenlit last year when President Duterte secured a loan from China that will finance 85% of its P12.2-billion cost.

In this article I want to point to a number of red flags relating to China’s involvement in the Kaliwa Dam project. 

Although the dam promises to ease Metro Manila’s water woes, government seems to be exaggerating its benefits and downplaying its costs. Moreover, by withholding key documents, government is being less than forthright about the nature of China’s involvement. 

 Not the only alternative

The Kaliwa Dam project stems from the dire need to quench Metro Manila’s ever-increasing demand for water.

Figure 1 shows that while Metro Manila’s water demand is projected to increase steadily in the coming years (primarily due to steady population and economic growth), water supply can only increase in discrete jumps, resembling the steps of an uneven staircase.

The graph tells us we should augment our water supplies (climb to the next step) before demand becomes too high. Otherwise, if we continue to rely on just the traditional watersheds and groundwater sources, we can expect to suffer chronic water shortages by 2021.

This is where the Kaliwa Dam project comes into play. Once completed, it could provide an extra 600 MLD to Metro Manila, thus securing water needs at least until around 2026.  

But Kaliwa Dam is hardly the only option available to us. 

In a 2012 report, the World Bank listed numerous other possible water sources for Metro Manila, Kaliwa Dam being but one (see Table 1).

For instance, Laiban Dam, found upstream from Kaliwa Dam, could boost Metro Manila’s water supply by an additional 1,800 MLD. But the government already announced it has no plans of pursuing this because of the “social engineering nightmare” it entails. 

Other smaller water sources, once combined, could also easily exceed the water supply that Kaliwa Dam has to offer.

Cheaper option

Even if Kaliwa Dam were necessary, it need not be funded by the Chinese government and built by a Chinese firm.

A Japanese firm, Global Utility Development Corporation (GUDC), has in fact been offering to build an intake weir along Kaliwa River instead of a full-blown dam. 

There are many advantages to this. 

First, despite being just 7 meters high (not 62 meters like a full-blown dam), a weir could provide an extra 550 MLD to Metro Manila, not far from the 600 MLD that Kaliwa Dam is expected to produce.

Second, the weir’s low height means it won’t have to inundate the surrounding areas, thereby avoiding the displacement of people in nearby Daraitan village and disrupting the flow of the Kaliwa River. These same concerns have derailed plans for the Kaliwa Dam for the longest time.

Third, the weir will only take 3 years to construct, whereas a full-blown dam might not be finished until after the Duterte administration has passed.

Fourth, the GUDC was offering to construct it 50% cheaper and under a “private finance initiative,” which means the firm will bear all upfront costs and risks. In contrast, the Kaliwa Dam project is financed by a Chinese government loan that carries a 2% interest rate, which is about 8 times higher than what Japanese loans typically offer.

So by all accounts the weir proposal seems to be better and more cost-effective. 

But for some reason the MWSS bid out the project exclusively to Chinese firms, and eventually chose China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) – owned by the Chinese government – to be the project’s contractor. 

Dubious track record

This is disturbing given China’s dubious track record in building dams in developing countries.

In Ecuador, for example, another Chinese firm financed and built a hydroelectric dam (called Coca Codo Sinclair) that promised to secure Ecuador’s energy needs and deliver the Ecuadorians from poverty.

But not only was the new dam precariously built near Reventador volcano (in spite of geologists’ warnings), but only two years since it opened the dam was already covered in at least 7,648 cracks according to a New York Times report. It could also not operate at full capacity without “shuddering dangerously.”

Moreover, the project was financed by an onerous loan from China totaling $1.68 billion, payable in 15 years, and with a 7% interest rate. Ecuador repays this and other loans by giving up 80% of its oil resources to China.

Soon enough Ecuador found itself ensnared by China’s infamous “debt trap,” the dam being part of China’s global infrastructure push called Belt and Road Initiative or BRI. (READ: What scares me the most about China’s new, ‘friendly’ loans)

This is by no means an isolated incident. By aggressively building dams in the northern reaches of the Mekong River, China has also directly threatened the livelihoods and ecosystems of downstream countries like Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia.

This is not to say that every dam project built by a Chinese state-owned firm turned out to be bad. 

But Kaliwa Dam is a sizable project and the Duterte government should not downplay the real risks of involving a state-owned Chinese company, lest they appear to be disingenuous.

Why the secrecy?

All things considered, the Duterte government seems to be exaggerating the benefits of the Kaliwa Dam project and downplaying its costs and risks.

More worrying, however, is the government’s unwillingness to show the bid and loan documents that paved the way for China’s participation.

Lingering doubts could be easily put to rest if only the Duterte government were fully transparent in the way they awarded the project to a Chinese contractor and secured a loan from China.

Until now, however, the relevant documents have yet to be bared for all to see. 

What’s holding government back? Why the secrecy? – Rappler.com

The author is a PhD candidate at the UP School of Economics. His views are independent of the views of his affiliations. Follow JC on Twitter (@jcpunongbayan) and Usapang Econ (usapangecon.com). 

It's World Water Day today. Maybe this reminder comes to you as you experience water shortage in your own home. The reality is that this World Water Day is serving as a wake-up-call that the Philippines has a long way to go until it is sustainably managing its water resources. Take a closer look around the country, and you'll find that water shortage is a recurring theme.

El Niño, a natural phenomenon that causes increased temperatures and decreased rainfall, has been blamed for the water shortage in Metro Manila and Rizal. That is true to some extent. PAGASA reported decreased rainfall in parts of the country during the last 3 months. For areas that rely solely on surface water such as rivers, lakes, and springs, the lack of rain has been observed through dwindling supply.

However, El Niño is only a contributing factor to the problem. If water management plans are properly executed, water rationing should not be necessary. The challenge is that often, these management plans are not executed as they should be. Lack of coordination among local government units is one of the key culprits, delaying projects months, years, or even indefinitely.

PAGASA's report recommends that "concerned agencies and the general public...take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of El Niño." Regardless of what, or who, is to blame for the water shortage, what do precautionary measures even mean? To me, they mean infrastructure both centralized and decentralized, as well as water resources education.

Infrastructure

An undeniable component of the current water shortage is lack of adequate centralized infrastructure such as dams and piping networks. Urban areas such as Metro Cebu are struggling to build the infrastructure needed to support quickly growing populations. This is a challenge because large-scale infrastructure is in theory the most effective way to manage water resources. If a metro area can navigate the politics and costs of major infrastructure updates such as dams, modern pipe networks, and even a desalination plant (a process for turning saltwater into freshwater), a large population can be sustainably served with a few projects.

However, going big is not the only path to success – the country needs solutions at the local level, even at the household level. I propose rainwater harvesting as one technology to mitigate future shortages. Rainwater harvesting can take on many forms – a bucket placed outside to directly capture water droplets, a small (check) dam on private land, a modern building system with gutters and filters to use for potable and non-potable uses.

With its origins in Asia, rainwater harvesting has long been used in the Philippines, though not recently, it seems. This simple technology can easily solve water shortage problems by diverting water captured via roofs to storage containers. With simple bacterial treatment of rainwater with clean fixtures and a first flush filter system, water can even be used for human consumption.

In Australia, rainwater supply accounts for 63% of residential water outside of urban areas and 9% of all residential water nationally. The widespread use of rainwater harvesting technologies in Australia has emerged from an acute need for water. Their model of decentralized household systems can serve as inspiration for a Philippines thirsting for water.

Water resources education

The value of education can never be understated, most especially if it pertains to one of the 3 basic life needs of every human. Water resource education can serve as a tool to understand the water cycle, sources of contamination in our environment, and the way this affects water supply for human uses. Water education can be incorporated into public school science classes, where conservation and resource management are discussed, and it can be highlighted through barangay health centers. Increasing awareness of water resources will allow individuals to make more informed decisions about their water consumption and how to alleviate shortages at the individual, decentralized level.

Resources are available through online sites, such as United Nations Water, and the 30+ government agencies that regulate water in the country. The key is to stay informed so that you can make smarter choices when it comes to your water. 

Now think back to the last rainy season. If you are from any metro area in the country, you likely cringe as you recall flooded streets and unnavigable traffic. The ironic challenge of the nations' concrete cities is that water can be both too scarce and too plentiful. However, with water resources education and harvesting infrastructure designed to ease the ebb and flow of water supply, both problems can be reduced.

Is there an immediate, low-cost solution to the Philippines' water shortage? Unfortunately not during this El Niño season. However, there are steps individuals and the nation must take to move toward a more secure water future. – Rappler.com

Sarah Hartman is a United States Fulbright Scholar conducting rainwater harvesting research at the University of San Carlos, Cebu. She is an engineer in training in the US and holds a bachelor's degree in environmental engineering from the University of Delaware.

Dear Undecided Voter, 

Hi.  

Salamat, ha? Sa kabila ng lahat ng ingay ng mga isyung politikal at ng halalan, na minsan wala nang kinalaman sa kapakanan mo, at ang mala-karnabal na kampanyahan, nariyan pa rin kayo. Hindi nagpapatinag sa gimik at panghahalina. Undecided pa rin. 

Gusto ko lang sabihing hindi madali ang maging undecided sa panahong ito. Tiyak may telebisyon kayo, o radyo. O naglalakad-lakad sa labas ng bahay, nakakakita ng masakit-sa-matang tarpaulin na may retokadong pagmumukha ng kandidato at iba pang nangagsabit at nangagharang, o minsan ay kamisetang suot na campaign material.  

Tiyak na napapanood ninyo ang palatastas para iboto si ganoon at ganitong kandidato sa pagkasenador. Silang nagpapagalingan ng hagod at paraan para maantig ang damdamin ng audience, para maniwala o maawa ka. Awa o paniniwala? Hindi na mahalaga; ang mas mahalaga sa kanila, iboto mo sila. Makakuha ng sapat na bilang ng boto para matawag na senador simula Hulyo. 

May direktang kampanya, undecided voter, iyong malinaw na sinasabi na iboto ang kandidato. Kesyo itiman mo raw ang bilog katabi ng numerong ganoon at ganito pagsapit ng eleksiyon. Tapos sasabihin o lalabas sa screen ng telebisyon ang hungkag na slogan, tersera klaseng slogan, iyong paulit-ulit mo nang narinig mula pa noong panahon ni Kopong-kopong, lalo kung walang masyadong budget para sa isang matinong advertising agency ang kandidato. 

Pero siyempre meron ding magagaling na patalastas, undecided voter. Appeal to emotion. Iyong akala mo sila talaga ang maghahango sa kinasadlakan nating lusak ng buhay. Malupit 'yan. Tinira ng propesyonal. Milyon-milyon ang ginastos para makabili ng oras sa paborito mong programa sa radyo o telebisyon.  

Alam kong napapanood o naririnig mo ang mga patalastas na ito, undecided voter. Sino ba naman ang hindi? Alam kong naririnig mo ang mga kandidato sa kanilang mga rehearsed na linya na ilang beses kinahunan bago ipalabas ang pinakamagandang bersiyon nito. Heavily edited na bersiyon.

Pero meron ding nagpapanggap na patalastas, undecided voter. Mahirap mahalata kung hindi ka magsusuri nang husto. Advertorial ang tawag dito. Iyong akala mo interview ng kung sinong reporter o broadcaster sa kandidato, pero loaded ang sasabihin, scripted, magbubuhat ng sariling bangko. Pupurihin ang sarili kasabwat ang broadcaster o reporter. Implied. Hindi tahasan. Pero naroon, ramdam mo ang yabang. 

Nagpupumilit maging laman ng balita. Nagbibigay ng opinyon sa bawat usapin. Iyang mga ganyang gimik ang humahatak para magdesisyon ang mga botante pabor sa kandidato. Parang, “Wow! Relevant pala si ganitong pulitiko?! Mukhang magaling. Maiboto nga.” Kaya nababawasan paglipas ng araw ang undecided (3.7% na lang ngayon kumpara sa 5.6% noong huling Pulse Asia survey), dahil sa mga ganitong gimik. At makakaasa kang papalupit nang papalupit ang kampanya.  

Marami pang ibang paraan ng kampanya. Meron tungkol sa debate o, gaya ng nangyari kamakailan, kawalan ng debate. 

Pero hindi lang kampanya, undecided voter, hard sell man gaya ng pagbili ng airtime at espasyo sa pahayagan o soft sell gaya ng advertorial na interview o maging panauhin sa isang noontime show. Meron din siyempreng siraan.  

Wasakan kung may natitira pang buo sa pagkatao. Kuyog mentality. Pagtutulungan hanggang hindi mo na iboto – isuko ang pagiging undecided! – hanggang mawala na sa gunam-gunam ng botante ang pangalan ng kandidato. Hanggang matabunan ng magical na prinsipyo ng mga trapo: ang name recall at "winnability" ng kandidato kahit pa walang kasilbi-silbi o magnakaw (muli?) kapag naging masibang senador.  

"Winnable" kahit walang utak. May name recall kahit magnanakaw. Sadnu? 

Bahagi ito ng dynamics ng mala-karnabal nating kampanyahan: sayawan, kantahan, away-away, siraan, pagsisinungaling na malapit na ring maging standard sa kampanyahan at buhay.  

Lahat ito ay mga salik kung bakit pumipili ang marami sa atin ng ibobotong kandidato kahit malayo pa ang eleksiyon. Kaya marahil may survey paminsan-minsan. Sinusukat ang pulso ng taumbayan kung kumakagat ang mga isyu at patalastas. Tinatanong, face-to-face, ang sampling na kumakatawan sa atin. Pawang nakakalat sa kapuluan at iba’t ibang saray ng lipunan ang mga tinanong: “Kung ang nasabing eleksyon sa 2019 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na personalidad ang inyong iboboto bilang SENADOR?”

Sa dami ba naman ng advertisement, o kapital na popularidad, may malaking tsansang ang isasagot ng na-survey ay iyong bantog at laging lantad ang pagmumukha sa telebisyon. Kontrobersiyal ba naman, o umubos ng milyong kayamanan (o bilyon pa marahil sa paglipas ng mga araw) para sa mga planadong patalastas at airtime at mga isyung eepalan, tingnan ko lang kung hindi nga manguna o umangat sa survey. (BASAHIN: Political ads of top spenders worth more than their declared wealth)

Kaya binabati ko ang mga wala pang ibobotong gaya mo, undecided voter. Pambihira kayo. Either napanood mo na ang mga gimik at kampanyang walang epekto sa iyo, o sadyang wala kang oras para sumagot sa mga tanong.   

Sa resulta ng huling survey, nakapaloob kayo sa kategoryang “Don’t now,” “Refused,” “None.” Oo nga’t hindi eksaktong undecided, pero kung susuriin, parang ganoon na rin. Basahin: “Kung ang nasabing eleksyon sa 2019 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na personalidad ang inyong iboboto bilang SENADOR?” Hindi mo alam, ayaw mong sumagot, o wala lang. 

Sa totoo lang, hindi naman kailangang magmadaling mapunan ang listahan ng iboboto. Mahaba pa ang karnabal na ito. Marami pang pagkakataong makilala ang mga kandidato higit sa kanilang pinlanong campaign line, higit sa carefully crafted na script, lalong higit sa carefully and meticulously Photoshopped na kara.  

Ang iba ay gusto lang manalo, hindi naman talaga gustong magserbisyo. Marami diyan ang napilitan lang dahil inutusan ng kung sinong pinangangamuhan; maraming itutuloy ang misyong lalong magkamal ng yaman. May iba diyan para tabunan ang kabuktutan. Lahat ng iyan ay ikinukubli ng mababangong kampanya. 

Kaya binabati kita, undecided voter. Kung kinakailangang magdesisyon ka sa mismong pagharap mo sa balota sa Mayo 13, okay na okay lang. Ganoon talaga. Hindi mo niyakap ang palabas at karnabal na kung tawagin ay kampanya. 

Pero sa ngayon, undecided voter, kailangan mong hikayatin pa ang iba. Sabihin mong huwag padalos-dalos sa pagsasabing tapos na ang listahan ng iboboto. Pagnilayan kamong mabuti. Suriing mabuti. Sagarin ang kampanyahan.  

Dahil sa huli, ipaalala mo sa may desisyon na, na ang kampanya ay isang malaking palabas lamang para makuha ang inyong paniniwala o awa. Mas kilalanin kamo ang kandidato sa kanilang motibong hindi binabanggit sa campaign jingle, campaign poster, o patalastas. Pero makikita sa kanilang unrehearsed na kilos o unscripted na pananalita na malayong-malayo sa intensiyong maglingkod sa kapwa. 

Muli, salamat at congrats. 

Best, 
Joselito “Undecided din” de Los Reyes 

– Rappler.com 

Bukod sa pagtuturo ng Creative Writing, Pop Culture, and Research sa Unibersidad ng Santo Tomas, Writing Fellow din si Joselito D. Delos Reyes, PhD sa UST Center for Creative Writing and Literary Studies at Research Fellow sa UST Research Center for Culture, Arts and Humanities. Board Member siya ng Philippine Center of International PEN. Siya ang kasalukuyang tagapangulo ng Departamento ng Literatura ng UST.  

In a recent senatorial debate, Governor Imee Marcos – scion of the Marcos political clan of Ilocos Norte – argued that establishing term limits under the 1987 Constitution created political dynasties. She appeared to conclude from this that removing term limits would also end dynasties in the country.

Perhaps similarly minded, the House of Representatives through RBH 15 developed a draft charter change agenda that included the removal of term limits. Did the creation of term limits create political dynasties? Will its removal also spell their demise? 

In our recent paper, “Term Limits and Political Dynasties: Unpacking the Links,” we outline the links between term limits and dynasties, emphasizing how political dynasties have expanded over time, and providing a more evidence-based assessment of the possible drivers. 

Political dynasties existed even before the 1987 Constitution and term limits

There is clear evidence that political dynasties were already present before establishing term limits. Yet, it is also true that many new dynasties emerged, and many old political clans reemerged in the post-Marcos era. Here, term limits may have helped trigger the rise of some “fat dynasties” by forcing entrenched politicians to yield their positions once they hit the term limit.

However, due to the absence of an anti-dynasty law as well as stronger political parties – among other key conditions necessary to provide the opening for, and effectively supply alternative leaders – what we observed is the tendency to pass on that position to other family members. This is a pattern that existed even prior to the creation of term limits, and arguably, this was exacerbated not simply by term limits per se, but by the absence of other ancillary reforms that were supposed to supply strong alternative leaders.  

Fat dynasties gamed the system

Large political clans have found a way around term limits, by bringing in more family members into elective office. Political clans effectively display long term limits already. The literature and evidence suggest that longer terms allow politicians (and political clans) a longer runway for reform, yet if they become entrenched and difficult to oppose, then this also exposes the jurisdiction to an overconcentration and abuse of power, and uncompetitive elections. In fact, based on our review of the available evidence, long terms by political clans are associated with stagnant or deteriorating development outcomes.  

The illustrations below help to further clarify how political clans were able to strategically circumvent term limits and fielded other members of the family to key local government positions. The Tans of Western Samar started with one position back in 1998 when the matriarch, Milagrosa, started her political career as provincial board member. She then served as governor for 3 consecutive terms afterwards. While serving her last term as governor in 2007, the political clan fielded Sharee Ann (daughter of Milagrosa) for the congressional post. 

Eventually, Sharee Ann switched position with her mother after the latter’s term ended. Concurrently, the political clan fielded Stephen James (son of Milagrosa), for the vice-gubernatorial position and the 3 dominated the key local executive and legislative positions in the province for 9 consecutive years until 2018. For the 2019 election, the 3 will run for the key offices again by passing the positions among each other along with another member of the family, Michael, who will compete for another legislative position in another district in Western Samar. See Figure 1.

Figure 1. Full house for the Tan political clan of Western Samar

Meanwhile, the Dimaporos of Lanao del Norte managed to secure the Governor post for 9 consecutive election periods – equivalent to two decades. Three members of the family (Abdullah, Imelda, and Khalid) have taken turns in the position, each individually facing term limits, while altogether their clan circumvented this particular constraint. The family was also able to expand its sphere of influence by fielding other members of the clan for other offices. In 2019, the Dimaporo clan is set to compete for the governorship and two congressional positions in Lanao del Norte.

Figure 2. Strategic allocation of political power by the Dimaporo clan of Lanao del Norte

In some areas, dominating political clans challenge each other to win key elective positins. In Camarines Norte, the Villafurte clan has established political influence in the province’s top executive position, which is being challenged by the Andaya clan for the 2019 election. The father-son tandem has secured the legislative position of the province’s first district for almost 3 decades.

Figure 3. Clash of clans in Camarines Sur: Villafuerte vs Andaya

Figure 4. Marcos governor in Ilocos Norte for the last 20 Years

These are only some examples of many fat dynasties that have adapted to the term limits and found ways to circumvent them by fielding more family members to compete for elective positions.

Combining the evidence on the abovementioned points, it is an obvious non sequitur to argue that dynasties will be curbed by removing term limits. Simply removing term limits at this point will secure the political foothold of many already fat political dynasties. Real reforms should be focused not on removing term limits, but on further strengthening those reforms that should have accompanied it – including enhancing competition in the political sphere, such as by supplying alternative leaders, strengthening political parties, and regulating political dynasties. – Rappler.com

*The full paper, R.U.Mendoza, Miann Banaag, and M.H.Yusingco (2019) “Term Limits and Political Dynasties: Unpacking the Links” Ateneo Policy Center, Ateneo de Manila University, can be downloaded using this link. We thank ADRI and Ateneo for supporting the production of this study. All views herein are the authors’ and do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the Ateneo.

The campaign for local elections officially kicks off on Friday, March 29, but shots have already been fired against many of the candidates.

In the name of the war on drugs, President Rodrigo Duterte read on live television a narco-list of politicians allegedly linked to the illegal drugs trade.

In the name of counter-insurgency, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) has issued a stern warning against candidates who pay revolutionary taxes to communist guerrillas. “We know you,” barked the DILG chief, veteran intelligence officer Eduardo Año.

As of last last week, at least 45 mayors were facing administrative complaints for their alleged failure to establish anti-drug abuse councils in their areas. The government said more than 800 others will be facing the same complaints in the coming weeks.

The DILG previously announced that 349 local officials were under a watchlist for paying permits to communist guerrillas so they could campaign in rebel areas. The list includes 11 governors, 10 provincial board members, 55 mayors, 21 vice mayors, and 41 councilors.

Bear in mind that last year, a total of 186 local executives had already been stripped of police powers for various administrative issues raised against them by the DILG. 

And last November, President Duterte gave the DILG the power to name a replacement for any local official found to be “temporarily incapacitated.”

The number of bets under scrutiny seems small vis-a-vis the total number of local candidates these elections, which is estimated at 44,000. But that's beside the point. Let's not forget the already politically-charged climate in the localities as Duterte entered his 3rd year in office with an unprecedented number of mayors and vice mayors killed: at least 12 and 7, respectively.

So here’s where we are 4 days before local candidates begin their campaigns: the anti-drug and anti-communist net is now cast so wide that it threatens to catch anyone who quacks, moves, and smells like a druggie or a commie – and especially so if he or she does not adhere to the Duterte ideology of acquiescence. 

We have a president who, having served as mayor practically his entire adult life, is now employing all levers of state power on a national scale to lay an election trap for those he dislikes. This is on top of using his omnipresent pulpit to strike fear and rip reputations apart.

Not to say that local politicians are strangers to this game, or that they are unfamiliar with gangland tactics. In fact, if there’s anything about local elections in the Philippines, it’s that they represent everything that rots in our politics.

How then did previous presidents and leaders manage local elections? Well, they didn’t. They’re not supposed to.

A fractured democracy like ours continues to have mechanisms for election management. If a province is a hot spot, the Commission on Elections takes direct control of it during the campaign period. If warlords brandish their armies as they barnstorm, the police and military are mandated to disarm them. If a reelectionist congressman is suspected of being a drug lord, well, a competent government, rather than deploying investigators against its critics, should have thrown the books at him prior to this day!

What’s a Philippine president to do during a midterm race which – except for a few aberrations – is won by incumbent administrations anyway? He does what he must: ensure the victory of his party and his administration by forging alliances (or breaking them), refereeing among warring allies, cutting deals, strong-arming big business to fund them, and ordering a massive campaign to defeat the opposition.

Through his daughter and heir apparent Mayor Sara Duterte, the President has done all that. But there's more.

By naming and shaming politicians up for reelection for their suspected drug links, by red-tagging candidates and putting them on a watchlist, and by harassing bishops and priests who are embedded in communities, Duterte has essentially nationalized and institutionalized everything that’s abhorrent about local campaigns: terror, black propaganda, violence.

He is now acting like the mayor he was once – except that he has command of the entire armed forces and national police, holds sway over investigative bodies and the judiciary, is the CEO of the entire government bureaucracy, and is immune from suit, not matter what he says, no matter what he does.

We have not seen anything like this since the fall of the Marcos dictatorship in 1986: a strongman inserting himself in local elections by carpet-bombing his enemies. He intends to take votes away from them through means and resources available only to a president. 

We warn that the consequences are dire. Those who manage to win the local races would be so paralyzed by the brazen use of state power that they will have little choice but to say yes to his every whim until his term ends in 2022.

Dear reader, what looms ahead after May is a sycophantic Congress, a Duterte Senate, and a bunch of coopted provinces.

Stop it while you can, or that’s the last nail in the coffin. – Rappler.com