Everyone is so worried about the North Korea missile threat, yet few are aware of the greater threat of China’s nuclear attack stealth submarines (SSBNs) lurking in the 9-dash area, which covers 80% of the entire South China Sea (SCS). Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines have expressed worry over this new development.
The first-ever Chinese operational nuclear sub was sighted in April 2016 in Hainan, an undisputed Chinese island between Taiwan and Vietnam. Hainan is reputed to be the Chinese future strategic naval mega-base to cover the Asia Pacific region, which would challenge US nuclear submarines with undersea berths in Subic Base in the Philippines or Pearl Harbor in Hawaii.
The Hainan initiative was a response to the presence of a US fast attack submarine, the USS Topeka (SSN-754) in Subic Bay on a ‘goodwill’ visit in January 2016. Although the Topeka is not a nuclear submarine, the psyche-war message was clear, “Hey, we are here to stay”, and it could be followed by nuclear subs in the future. The Subic undersea submarine ports and missile silos are believed to be intact to this date.
The visit was a PR move to showcase US-Philippine alliance. It was well-timed, just hours before the Supreme Court ruled that the US-Philippine defense treaty Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) was legal. It was China’s turn to rattle its saber with the Hainan sub, with a similar message “We are also here to stay”.
The submarine psyche-war has triggered a more intensified US-China nuclear arms race in the Asia Pacific, seemingly irreversible and inching slowly towards a future confrontation. Subic poses a grave threat to the entire Philippines in case of a nuclear confrontation. This puny nation needs to be on the sideline, not in the middle of a nuclear war of giants. The Philippines has to ban US nuke subs in its territory, without jeopardizing US alliance. In a nuclear war, China and the US may have less casualties, mostly military, than the Philippines and Vietnam, mostly civilians in concentrated population areas.
China’s newest nuclear attack sub, Type 094A, is based in an undersea submarine base at Yulin in Hainan, similar to that in Subic, complete with underground shelters. It has supreme stealth capability, just like the US Ohio-class SSBNs. If the US can stalk the well-defended China mainland shores, China can do the same for both US Atlantic and Pacific shores. The Type 094A is armed with a 12 JL-2A multiple-warhead nuclear missiles, with a range of 11,200 kilometers. JL-2, the ‘tsunami missile’, stands for the Mandarin word for ‘Big Wave’. In a war of stealth nuke subs, both sides can induce massive tsunamis against each other’s population centers.
First-strike is not an option, which can induce massive retaliation. In other words, there are no winners even in a first-strike scenario. Both the US and China military ignore this reality. A submarine clash in the SCS can trigger World War III within hours, if there are itchy fingers on both sides. That’s how close we are to an apocalyptic Armageddon.
The Chinese nuke sub is a game changer, challenging US naval supremacy in the Asia Pacific. China has been ignoring US media-covered diplomatic protests and its warships passing through disputed waters, because China is confident that the US will not dare start a war, now that China has equalized US naval superiority somewhat. There is no mood for war on both sides yet, but increased arms escalation is the precursor to a future confrontation.
Bears like China and eagles like America are deadly predators that puny preys like the Philippines have to contend with and maneuver around. It is a classic David and Goliath story, but David this time has no sling shot. – Rappler.com
Bernie V. Lopez is a seasoned columnist, writing in the last 20 years for various newspapers. He was a freelance director-scriptwriter of news documentaries for television too and was a Communications Professor at the Ateneo Graduate School of Business. He is in the healing ministry of Sr. Raquel Reodica, RVM. You may email him at eastwindreplyctr@gmail.com.